Manual Damage Assessment (1967)

[Music] would you repeat your location again please got another sighting coming in Ralph yeah from the airport at Castle Rock in a southeasterly direction time from the sighting of Flash the blast sound about 3 minutes right well with these other two sightings and this one we should be able to pinpoint it pretty close yeah thanks and listen you get on the horn again if you have anything else to report right you get that yeah that puts it right about here could be Glennwood Springs that had fit our other report let's check it out in here yeah Glenwood Springs population 3,637 Glenwood Springs what about special resources let's uh let's see this is the Emergency Operating control center in an American town a test exercise is being conducted these two men are performing a task which would be vitally important in the event of a nuclear attack on our nation damage assessment an estimate of the probable human and material resources that would still be available after a nuclear strike manual damage assessment is a short-term measure to define the remaining capabilities of government following an attack it is not an automatic function but is initiated only when more reliable means of determining this capability are not available manual damage assessment Is Us used as a basis for Command Decisions only when delaying such a decision will have serious consequences on further emergency actions since initial damage estimates will be based on fragmented information a high degree of error will be possible therefore initial damage estimates must be used with utmost care who performs manual damage assessment how is it accomplished and why is it necessary the answers to these questions begin long before the moment of Emergency the answers begin here in the civil defense office of the local government in the pre-attack period Harald young local civil defense coordinator Ralph Harris County engineer Larry Boyd building inspector they have been asked by the civil defense director to be responsible for damage assessment in the local government emergency organization in the event of a nuclear strike it is important that the local government emergency organization have some capacity for estimating resources that may be available in the area for the preservation of Life the alleviation of suffering and the restoration of vital Community functions between the time of the nuclear detonation and such time as it is possible to make an actual on the spot damage assessment the manual damage estimate using plotting tools and Maps pre-plotted overlays depicting resources and population provides help in Emergency Operations [Music] planning five essential elements form the basis for the concept of performing a manual damage assessment one information about the resources of the area to be assessed two information on the location and nature of the nuclear strike three technical data pertaining to the characteristics and anticipated effects of the weapon detonated four time of detonation and any evasive action taken five meteorological conditions at the time of the detonation in the pre-attack period Harris and Boyd have accumulated ated all available information as to population and other selected resources for their area in compiling their data they have received the cooperation of all Municipal agencies as well as local utility companies and Industrial plants next and basic to the assessment planning is the location of the resources on appropriate Maps resources may be positioned on Maps using the geographic coordinate system such as latitude and longitude or a quadrangle system such as the universal transverse Mercer Maps used primarily by the military computer printed lattice locational pre-ot are available for standard Metropolitan statistical areas they are arranged in 2 1/2 km squares and indicate by Cod number the total quantities of a given resource Maps suitable for damage assessment purposes may be obtained from the Army map service us Geological Survey and from state or local sources one effective method of plotting the number of units in a resource category is the equiv value dot [Music] system here each dot represents a given number of units on this population map for instance each dot represents 2,000 persons dots should be positioned to represent the true distribution of the resource whether human or [Music] material another resource map prepared from pre-attack data might indicate location and type of certain structures that may have value in the recovery period period symbols might identify hospitals schools factories utility lines or other resources some communities throughout the country may have special resources nearby which have strategic emergency value such as large grain storage facilities industrial processing plants extensive clothing supplies these too may be plotted on resource maps for damage assessment purposes the maps are used in conjunction with specially prepared templates arranged in a series of rings representing the various areas of Destruction from Ground Zero the template may be made of plastic or any transparent [Music] material [Music] application of the template made to the same scale as the map gives a quick estimate as to the probable condition of the particular resource after a nuclear detonation in a similar manner the appropriate template may be placed over the lest locational pre- plot of resources preparation for damage assessment calls for a lot of study Harris bones up on data he may eventually have to use in estimating [Music] casualties this is a casualty estimation form used to predict the percentages of killed and injured voy concerned with damage to structures familiarizes himself with types of blast damage to various I [Music] buildings the type of damage that might be expected is described for each of the several areas from Ground Zero the inner zone is one of total Destruction with effects decreasing to the outer ring of light damage Harris learns how to develop and use proper templates for various types of nuclear detonation an air burst will create one pattern of effect a surface burst another such factors as [Music] terrain the yield and design of the weapons wind and other meteorological conditions at the time of detonation will affect the casualty estimate a knowledge of Fallout effects in relation to time and distance is essential in estimating probable casualties urgent in the immediate period after a nuclear blast is the need for information on location yield and type of burst geographical location of the nuclear detonation or net as it is called is crucial to the damage assessment this will enable the proper template to be placed at the appropriate Ground Zero position on the maps or plots depicting resources [Music] locations information on the nuclear detonation might come in from a variety of sources aircraft Pilots May communicate it to control Towers or Airway radio stations the nuclear flash might be spotted by Forest Rangers or weather observation Personnel at airports and other locations any surveillance May provide reports of nuclear detonations to the appropriate emergency centers much of the information in the period immediately following a nuclear attack may be fragmentary the concept of a manual damage assessment takes this into consideration in developing expedient methods and [Music] [Music] approaches [Music] this would be a typical nuclear detonation Report with these General directions it is possible to estimate the location of the burst and the time it takes for the sound of the detonation to reach the [Music] Observer time Sound Table provide quick reference as to the distance the noise of the detonation would travel in a given period of time Ground Zero may also be plotted from two or more sightings by measuring bearings from the observation [Music] points this will place the strike at or within intersecting lines the yield or size of a nuclear detonation may be estimated by observing the duration of the glare in the sky for instance 24 seconds would indicate a 1 Megaton or medium-size [Music] weapon Megaton ratings of nuclear weapons are listed in relationship to the duration of their Fireball Brilliance the type of burst whether Air or Surface may have to be determined against the background of certain weapons affect information for instance extensive spreading of Fallout would indicate a surface [Music] burst other elements should be evaluated in making the damage assessment such as location of the population time of the detonation warning conditions and any civil defense protective actions that may have already been [Music] taken now Boyd and Harris know the Essential Elements of damage estimation which they will have to utilize in any nuclear [Music] emergency they know the makeup of their area they know or have available to them the location distribution and vulnerability of vital resources they have learned the plotting techniques for estimating nuclear damage if and when nuclear attack should occur they are prepared with other emergency Personnel of the local [Music] government obviously manual damage assessment is not and cannot be a precise and definitive estimate however until such time as conditions allow for an accurate on thepot assessment they provide a ready means of estimating probable damage and casualties when they are used by Personnel trained in this specialty the various texts charts lce pre- plots of resources tables and other material are available to local communities through State and region civil defense channels for training [Music] purposes performed quickly and skillfully in the nuclear emergency manual damage assessment provides vital data on which to base plans for Community recovery an effective manual damage assessment will depend on how well the local government has prepared for it in the pre-attack period